Weekly Market Insight 18/01/2026 - Continuation Or Pause

This week feels like more of the same, but that does not make it unimportant.

Markets are sitting at levels where continuation or hesitation should become clearer. The moves are already in motion, but what matters now is whether price follows through or stalls at decision points.

Markets in Focus

GBPUSD · EURUSD · USDCHF · EURGBP

What the Markets Actually Did Last Week

GBPUSD (Cable)
The pound broke below a daily trend line the week before last and then spent Monday retesting that level from underneath. Price pushed higher into Tuesday evening before rolling over and breaking down. After a brief pullback into the 50 EMA, Cable continued lower.

I am short from 1.3419. Price is currently around 1.3380, with focus on further downside toward 1.3325. The move in sterling has developed alongside euro weakness, rather than independently.

EURUSD
The euro remains further ahead in the process. It has already broken below its 4-hour 200 EMA and last week retested that level precisely at the point where the 50 EMA crossed below the 200 EMA. That retest occurred on Monday morning and marked the turning point.

Since then, price has continued lower. A key level at 1.1618, the low from Friday 9 January, was broken on Thursday and then retested on Friday before price rolled over again. The broader focus remains on continuation toward the major daily trend line around 1.1540.

USDCHF
Dollar Swiss has been trading within a well defined range since mid 2025. The upper boundary sits around 0.8104 and the lower around 0.7872, with multiple clean touches on both sides. The structure is particularly clear on the 4-hour chart.

Price has now moved above the midpoint of the range and is riding the 4-hour 50 EMA, which crossed back above the 200 EMA earlier this week. Currently trading around 0.8031, the question is whether price continues higher toward the top of the range near 0.8104, or whether this move fades back into the range.

EURGBP
This is not a pair I usually favour due to its low range and slow movement, but it is sitting near meaningful levels. Price has spent several weeks riding the daily 200 EMA, ranging tightly between roughly 0.8650 and 0.8690.

Below, there is a key support level at 0.8604, dating back to late July and mid August last year. A meaningful break below the daily 200 EMA would open the door toward that level. If price holds and bounces, there is room back toward the mid 0.88 area.

The Main Story of the Week Ahead

This is a continuation versus hesitation week.

The directional bias is already established across several markets, particularly in FX. What remains unclear is whether those moves extend cleanly, or whether they stall at higher timeframe decision levels and force a period of consolidation.

This is not about finding new ideas. It is about managing existing ones and letting price resolve.

Key Levels and Behaviours to Watch

• EURUSD:
  Does price continue lower toward the daily trend line around 1.1540, and how does it behave as it approaches that level?

• GBPUSD:
  Does Cable follow through toward 1.3325, maintaining alignment with euro weakness, or does downside momentum begin to slow?

• USDCHF:
  Does price continue higher toward the top of the longer term range near 0.8104, or does it fail back below the midpoint?

• EURGBP:
  Does price break meaningfully below the daily 200 EMA and open a move toward 0.8604, or does it hold and drift higher again?

The Biggest Trap This Week

Entering positions early on Monday with US markets closed for the bank holiday.

Liquidity can be thin, moves can stall, and trades can end up stuck going nowhere. There is also headline risk this week, with Davos underway, President Trump speaking on Wednesday, alongside high impact US data including core PCE.

Ignoring these factors can leave even technically correct trades stranded.

My Personal Discipline Focus

Waiting for the market to show its hand at key levels, then acting with conviction.

The outcome of any individual trade is out of my control. Executing the process correctly is not.

Final Thought

Not every week needs a new narrative —
some weeks are about letting existing moves play out, or recognising when they no longer want to. Continuation or pause will resolve itself in price.

Trade what you see, not what you hope.