Weekly Market Insight 25/01/2026 - Patience Over Pursuit

Recent moves have gathered momentum across FX and indices, but several markets are now approaching levels where extension or retracement should become clearer.

This week is less about chasing what has already moved and more about seeing whether price consolidates, pulls back, or offers cleaner continuation entries.

Markets in Focus

USDCHF · USDJPY · AUDUSD · EURGBP · DAX

What the Markets Actually Did Last Week

USDCHF
Dollar Swiss has spent much of the past year trading within a clearly defined range between roughly 0.7872 on the downside and 0.8104 on the upside. At the end of the previous week, price was sitting near the upper half of that range around 0.8033.

Last week saw a broader dollar sell off alongside a shift toward risk off behaviour, supporting safe haven flows. Price sold off into Tuesday, stabilised briefly, then revisited the same area on Thursday. On Friday, during the US session, USDCHF broke decisively lower and closed the week around 0.7800.

On a daily basis, price has now closed below all recent lows and is trading at its lowest level since January 2015, following the removal of the SNB floor. This marks a structurally significant break rather than a routine range move.

USDJPY
Dollar Yen is the preferred yen cross this week following the Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday. Rates were left unchanged, but the press conference introduced volatility across yen pairs.

Later in the session, broader dollar weakness combined with risk off flows supported the yen. USDJPY fell in line with USDCHF and moved below its 4 hour 200 EMA, shifting short term structure from neutral to vulnerable.

While this is not a pair I trade frequently, the break below the 4 hour 200 EMA raises the possibility of a move toward the daily 200 EMA if downside pressure continues.

AUDUSD
Aussie dollar has been moving in line with other dollar based pairs, but the broader structure stands out. Price spent much of 2025 ranging between roughly 0.6414 and 0.6689, with repeated tests of both extremes.

After breaking above the top of that range, price retested and then pushed higher throughout last week. AUDUSD is now trading near 0.6895, a level that has capped price multiple times going back to mid 2023.

A clean break above this zone would open the door toward the next major high around 0.6940, formed in September 2024.

EURGBP
Euro Pound remains a slow moving pair, but it is sitting at meaningful technical levels. After spiking higher earlier in the week, price rotated back down to retest the daily 200 EMA, currently around 0.8652. Price is trading just above that level.

If the daily 200 EMA breaks decisively, the next key support sits at 0.8604, a level that has acted as support since August 2025. If it holds, continued range behaviour remains likely.

DAX
Equity indices gapped lower on the futures open over the weekend, with the DAX standing out structurally. On lower timeframes, price has formed a clear W pattern with a higher second low, followed by an impulsive push higher.

Since Wednesday, price has been consolidating beneath resistance around 24,945. A clean break and retest of this level would open the door toward a move higher, with the broader objective being a push to close the futures gap roughly 400 to 460 points above current levels.

The Main Story of the Week Ahead

This feels like a pause or reset week.

Recent moves look stretched across several markets, and price may need to consolidate or pull back before offering cleaner continuation opportunities. This is less about new trends starting and more about how existing trends behave after extension.

Key Levels and Behaviours to Watch

USDCHF:
Does price stabilise below the former range, or does it attempt to reclaim broken structure after the historic downside break?

USDJPY:
Does the pair retest the 4 hour 200 EMA from below, or does downside momentum continue toward the daily 200 EMA?

AUDUSD:
Does price break and hold above the 0.6895 resistance zone, opening the way toward 0.6940, or does it pause and consolidate?

EURGBP:
Does the daily 200 EMA give way, exposing the 0.8604 support level, or does price continue to grind sideways?

DAX:
Does price break above consolidation resistance and move to close the futures gap, or does the structure fail and rotate lower?

The Biggest Trap This Week

Chasing extended moves.

Entering trades late, after price has already travelled a significant distance, increases the risk of poor timing. Even when direction is correct, the outcome is largely down to chance if entries are forced.

My Personal Discipline Focus

Patience.

Waiting for price to pull into levels where risk is better defined, rather than reacting to movement that has already occurred. Letting opportunities come to me rather than trying to manufacture them.

Final Thought

Not every week is about action.

Some weeks are about observation, preparation, and restraint. The best trades often come after the pause, not during the rush.

Trade what you see, not what you hope.