Weekly Market Insight 11/01/2026 - Confirmation Over Conviction

This coming week is less about prediction and more about validation.

Across FX and commodities, recent technical breaks are now being tested. The question isn’t whether markets can move, it’s whether they are willing to commit.

Markets in Focus

GBPUSD · EURUSD · WTI Crude Oil

What the Markets Actually Did Last Week

GBPUSD (Cable)
The pound broke below a 4-hour trendline that had been in place since 17th December. That break occurred on Thursday 8th January, shifting the short-term structure from trending to vulnerable. Price is now sitting around the 4-hour 200 EMA, a level that often acts as a decision point.

At this stage, Cable is earlier in the move. The key question is whether it stabilises here, or whether it follows the euro lower.

EURUSD
The euro is further ahead in the same process. It broke its equivalent 4-hour trendline back at the start of December and has continued to weaken since. On a broader basis, the euro remains the weakest aggregate currency, underperforming the pound across multiple crosses.

Price is now moving toward a major daily trendline that originates from 3rd June, currently sitting around 1.1550 – 1.1530. This zone matters and how the euro behaves there will likely shape not just EURUSD, but the wider FX complex.

WTI Crude Oil
WTI has been attempting to base out. On the daily chart, RSI divergence suggested selling pressure was waning. On the 4-hour chart, an evolving structure ultimately formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

That pattern has now broken its neckline around 58.61, and price has pulled back to retest the level, currently trading near 58.80. The measured move from the structure points toward 61.40.

However, oil does not trade in a vacuum. With heightened geopolitical sensitivity, this is a market where headlines can override structure very quickly.

The Main Story of the Week Ahead

This is a confirmation week.

FX markets are deciding whether recent breaks develop into sustained downside, while oil sits at the intersection of constructive technicals and potentially disruptive fundamentals.

This is not the environment for forcing conviction, it’s the environment for waiting to be proven right.

Key Levels and Behaviours to Watch

• EURUSD:
  Does price continue toward the daily trendline at 1.1550 – 1.1530, and more importantly, how does it behave as it gets there?

• GBPUSD:
  Does Cable break and hold below the 4-hour 200 EMA, confirming alignment with euro weakness, or does it stabilise independently?

• WTI Crude:
  Does price hold above the neckline and start to turn higher toward the measured move, while navigating headline risk?

The Biggest Trap This Week

Trading technicals in isolation.

This is particularly dangerous in commodities. Clean patterns can fail quickly when fundamentals enter the picture. Structure still matters, but only when viewed within the broader context.

Ignoring that context doesn’t make a trader disciplined, it makes them blind.

My Personal Discipline Focus

Avoiding confirmation bias.

Not leaning on one signal simply because it fits a preferred narrative. Balancing structure, fundamentals, and market behaviour and being willing to step aside when conditions don’t align.

Final Thought

Professional trading isn’t about being first, it’s about being right, at the right time.

Weeks like this reward patience, restraint, and clear thinking. Let the market show its hand. Let price confirm intent and remember: there will always be another trade, but there is only one account.

Trade what you see, not what you hope.