Weekly Market Insight 04/01/2026 - Decision Week

Markets in Focus

GBPUSD · EURUSD · NZDUSD · EURGBP · FTSE 100 · Silver

What the Markets Actually Did Last Week

GBPUSD
The pound sold off into Wednesday, then stabilised into Friday. Rather than continuing higher, last week marked a plateau after an up-move, suggesting momentum is stalling rather than accelerating.

EURUSD
The euro followed a similar early-week path but showed more weakness. After making a low on Wednesday, Friday took out that low, indicating a clearer rollover compared to GBPUSD. If a broader turn is coming, the euro appears further along than the pound.

NZDUSD
The Kiwi showed the most decisive weakness. It printed a more pronounced low and on the 4-hour chart has broken below its 200EMA, putting it structurally ahead of both EURUSD and GBPUSD in any downside continuation.

EURGBP
The key move happened the week before last. Price broke below a long-standing daily uptrend line that began on Thursday 14 August. Last week price retested the underside of that trendline almost perfectly on Wednesday 31 December, which now acts as resistance. Since then, EURGBP has chopped below, favouring continuation lower rather than recovery.

FTSE 100
The FTSE broke above a previous high around 9,939, pushed through 10,000 for the first time, and held it. Friday closed at 10,002, keeping the index above this psychological and technical level.

Silver
Silver has experienced an exceptional move. From around $48 in early November, it spiked to highs near $84 at the start of last week. On the 4-hour chart, price appears to be forming a double top evolving into a triple top, with each high lower than the last. A clear neckline sits around $70.49, making this level critical going forward.

Main Story of the Week Ahead

This is a decision week.

Across FX, indices, and metals, markets are at points where they must either break trend or confirm continuation. Directional intent should become clearer — but only if price confirms it.

Key Things I’m Watching

• GBPUSD / EURUSD / NZDUSD:
  Whether recent weakness confirms into a proper rollover or proves to be just consolidation within the broader trend. NZDUSD currently looks the most developed on the downside.

• EURGBP:
  Confirmation that price stays below the broken daily trendline and follows through after last week’s underside retest.

• FTSE 100:
  Whether the market accepts above 10,000, pauses to consolidate, or reacts negatively to the psychological level.

• Silver:
  Whether price rolls over from the lower highs structure and breaks down toward the neckline, or instead regains strength and pushes to new highs.

Biggest Trap This Week

Entering too early on turnarounds.

This feels like a classic wait-and-see week, especially coming straight out of the holiday period. Trying to pre-empt reversals without confirmation risks getting chopped up or stepping in front of momentum that hasn’t actually turned yet.

Let the market prove itself.
Don’t try to jump in front of the train, instead try to catch the back of it once it’s already moving.

Personal Discipline Focus

Patience.

Not reacting to the first hint of a move.
Letting price confirm direction before committing.
Allowing the market to come to me rather than forcing trades.