Weekly Market Insight 15/03/2026 - Geopolitical Volatility, Structural Breaks, and Energy-Driven Uncertainty

Credibility Testing

Markets spent another week attempting to stabilise after the sudden repricing of geopolitical risk that has dominated the first half of March.

The Middle East conflict continues to sit at the centre of the narrative, with oil markets transmitting that uncertainty directly into global financial conditions. Crude prices swung violently throughout the week, briefly surging toward $119 per barrel before falling sharply below $77 and eventually stabilising closer to the high $90s by Friday. Moves of that magnitude within a single week highlight how sensitive markets have become to every development surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of supply disruption.

The macro backdrop itself remains conflicted.

Inflation has cooled compared with the peaks of previous years, but it remains above central bank targets and vulnerable to renewed pressure from energy costs. U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% in February while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE, pushed higher again to an annual rate of 3.1%. At the same time, economic growth is clearly slowing. Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP was revised down sharply to just 0.7%, while the United Kingdom reported zero economic growth in January.

In Europe, industrial momentum continues to weaken, with German factory orders falling more than 11% in January. Across the Atlantic, bond markets have responded to these conflicting signals by pushing yields higher again, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury finishing the week around 4.28%.

Currency markets have reflected the same uncertainty. The U.S. dollar remained broadly supported by safe-haven demand, while the Japanese yen weakened further toward levels that previously triggered official intervention warnings.

This combination of slowing growth, stubborn inflation, and geopolitical instability creates an environment where markets repeatedly test structure.

Retests determine credibility, while breaks determine expansion.

Markets in Focus

USD/JPY · NZD/USD · FTSE 100 · USD/CAD · EUR/GBP

What the Markets Actually Did Last Week

USD/JPY

The double bottom structure discussed last week completed as price broke decisively above the 157.66 neckline. Momentum continued into Friday, taking out the January highs near 159.45 and confirming the structural breakout.

NZD/USD

The double top structure also played out as anticipated. Price completed the measured move lower toward the 0.5779 region during Friday’s session, continuing the downside momentum that began after the neckline break earlier in the month.

FTSE 100

The FTSE initially gapped lower before recovering early in the week to close that gap and retest the four-hour moving averages. However, the rally failed to hold and price drifted back toward the 10,250 area by the end of the week.

USD/CAD

Price once again tested the major resistance zone around 1.3724. A brief four-hour break above the level occurred on Friday before price slipped back below it into the weekly close, leaving the market sitting directly at a key structural decision point.

EUR/GBP

Price continued drifting lower into the long-standing structural support zone around 0.8611, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance since early 2025.

The Main Story

The broader story remains the interaction between geopolitical risk and an already fragile macro backdrop.

Oil price volatility continues to act as the primary transmission mechanism between geopolitics and financial markets. When energy prices surge, inflation expectations rise and bond yields follow. That dynamic places pressure on equities and currencies simultaneously.

Yet markets are not collapsing. Instead, they are adjusting.

What we are seeing across many instruments is not panic selling but structural testing. Trends that began earlier in the year are now encountering levels where credibility must be proven.

The yen weakening toward historically sensitive levels, the continued downside in higher-beta currencies like the New Zealand dollar, and equity indices pressing into previously established support zones all reflect the same theme.

Markets are probing structure to determine whether existing trends remain valid under a more volatile macro environment.

Key Levels and Behaviours to Watch

USD/JPY

With the neckline break confirmed and the January highs removed, the next structural projection from the double bottom points toward the 163 region. That level would place the pair near territory not seen since the late 1980s and could increase the probability of official intervention rhetoric from Japanese authorities.

NZD/USD

With the measured move from the double top largely achieved, attention shifts toward the 0.5735 support area created by the earlier range structure. Continued weakness below the daily 200 EMA would keep downside momentum intact toward that zone.

FTSE 100

The key level remains the 10,250 region. Sustained trading below this area opens the path toward the 10,050–10,100 support zone.

USD/CAD

The 1.3724 resistance remains the central level. A clean break and retest above could open the path toward the January highs near 1.3926, while continued rejection would keep the market vulnerable to a rotation back toward the 1.3550 area.

EUR/GBP

Price is approaching the long-standing structural support zone near 0.8611. If that level fails to hold, the next major downside areas sit around 0.8412 and then the deeper structural support band near 0.8390–0.8370.

The Biggest Trap

The biggest trap this week is assuming that every sharp move in volatile markets represents the beginning of a sustained trend.

Geopolitical headlines can accelerate price movement quickly, but they rarely produce clean directional behaviour immediately. Instead, markets tend to overshoot in both directions while participants attempt to digest new information.

When volatility rises, traders often feel compelled to react quickly. Yet reacting to every headline frequently leads to chasing moves that are already extended.

Structure matters more than speed and allowing markets to test and confirm levels often provides clearer opportunities than attempting to anticipate every short-term reaction.

Personal Discipline Focus

Volatile environments reward patience.

Large daily moves can create the illusion that opportunity is everywhere, but they also increase the probability of emotional decision-making. Professional discipline during these periods means maintaining consistent risk management and allowing markets to confirm structure before committing capital.

The objective is not to capture every move, it is to participate in the moves that develop from clear structure while protecting capital during uncertainty.

Final Thought

Markets entered March focused primarily on inflation data and central bank policy.

Within weeks, geopolitics and energy security have moved to the centre of the conversation.

The interaction between those forces will likely continue to shape price behaviour in the weeks ahead.

When macro uncertainty rises, markets do not move randomly.

They test structure and those tests reveal which trends still hold credibility.